A LITTLE MATH FOR YOUR NEXT HATCH
Ride A Pet hatch probability calculator
Enter the odds shown in your game. These example inputs are not Ride A Pet drop rates.
AT LEAST ONE SUCCESS
Across 100 independent hatches at a 1% chance each.
Repeated hatches do not guarantee a rare pet. Each attempt is assumed independent with the same probability.
How the estimate works
For per-hatch probability p and n attempts, the chance of at least one success is 1 − (1 − p)ⁿ. The target calculation finds the smallest number of attempts reaching your selected confidence.
Use adjusted odds only if your game shows them. This tool does not model pity systems, changing odds or hidden luck formulas.
Hatch probability: a worked example
At a hypothetical 1% chance per hatch, 100 attempts give a 63.40% chance of at least one success. Reaching 90% confidence takes 230 attempts. These are mathematical examples, not verified game drop rates.
| Attempts | Chance of at least one success |
|---|---|
| 10 | 9.56% |
| 50 | 39.50% |
| 100 | 63.40% |
| 230 | 90.09% |
Does a 1% chance guarantee a pet after 100 hatches?
No. A 1% chance means each independent attempt has that chance; it is not a promise of one success per 100 attempts. The chance of no success after 100 attempts is about 36.60%.
Can I include luck boosts or a pity system?
Enter boosted odds only when the current game shows the effective probability. If odds change with each hatch or a pity system guarantees a reward, this constant-probability model will not describe those mechanics.